← Explore · Market 2643400
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
15.5% implied · bid 15.0¢ · ask 16.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 16.0%, down 3.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability16.0%
Bid / ask / mid15.0¢ / 16.0¢ / 15.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (6.5%)
Change 24h-3.00pt
Change 7d+7.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 62/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 9% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$76,089
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$24,995 / $9,031
Imbalance9% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score62.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.88
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d1.85pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 21d 21h.
Time to resolve21d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%