← Explore · Market 2643403
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
15.0% implied · bid 14.0¢ · ask 16.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 16.0%, down 4.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability16.0%
Bid / ask / mid14.0¢ / 16.0¢ / 15.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (13.3%)
Change 24h-4.50pt
Change 7d+8.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$28,248
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,397 / $3,715
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score43.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 40 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.23
RSI (14, hourly)40.0
Realized vol 7d1.33pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 21d 21h.
Time to resolve21d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%