← Explore · Market 2643405
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
23.5% implied · bid 23.0¢ · ask 24.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 24.0%, up 5.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability24.0%
Bid / ask / mid23.0¢ / 24.0¢ / 23.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (4.3%)
Change 24h+5.00pt
Change 7d+11.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 53/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$136,280
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$8,209 / $8,421
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)12
Liquidity score53.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 44 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.53
RSI (14, hourly)44.4
Realized vol 7d1.12pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 21d 21h.
Time to resolve21d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%