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Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?

48.5% implied · bid 48.0¢ · ask 49.0¢

The market prices this at 49.0%, up 4.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability49.0%

Bid / ask / mid48.0¢ / 49.0¢ / 48.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (2.1%)

Change 24h+4.50pt

Change 7d+18.00pt

Moderately liquid (score 53/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 13% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$14,980

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$12,969 / $2,071

Imbalance13% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score52.5 / 100

RSI 73 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.01

RSI (14, hourly)72.7

Realized vol 7d0.70pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 174d 21h.

Time to resolve174d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%