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← Explore · Market 2646849

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?

0.4% implied · bid 0.3¢ · ask 0.4¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 0.3%, down 0.8pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability0.3%
Bid / ask / mid0.3¢ / 0.4¢ / 0.4¢
Spread0.1¢ (28.6%)
Change 24h-0.75pt
Change 7d-3.30pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 52/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$133,079
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$246 / $4,125
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score51.7 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 20 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.66
RSI (14, hourly)20.0
Realized vol 7d3.61pt
Change 1h+0.05pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 0d 21h.

Time to resolve0d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth