← Explore · Market 2646850
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
48.5% implied · bid 47.0¢ · ask 50.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 50.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability50.0%
Bid / ask / mid47.0¢ / 50.0¢ / 48.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (6.2%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d-15.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 38/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 15% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$47,794
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,852 / $2,935
Imbalance15% bid
Large trades (>$1k)4
Liquidity score37.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 71 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.10
RSI (14, hourly)71.1
Realized vol 7d3.32pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 21d 21h.
Time to resolve21d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%