← Explore · Market 2646914

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

13.5% implied · bid 12.5¢ · ask 14.4¢

The market prices this at 14.4%, up 2.5pt over 24h, on a 1.9¢ spread.

Implied probability14.4%

Bid / ask / mid12.5¢ / 14.4¢ / 13.5¢

Spread1.9¢ (14.1%)

Change 24h+2.45pt

Change 7d+2.15pt

Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,066

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$785 / $548

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score41.2 / 100

RSI 53 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.77

RSI (14, hourly)53.2

Realized vol 7d1.01pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 82d 21h.

Time to resolve82d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%