← Explore · Market 2646918
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
10.0% implied · bid 9.0¢ · ask 11.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 10.0%, down 5.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability10.0%
Bid / ask / mid9.0¢ / 11.0¢ / 10.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (20.0%)
Change 24h-5.00pt
Change 7d-23.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$7,275
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$445 / $247
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 27 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.43
RSI (14, hourly)26.9
Realized vol 7d2.49pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 82d 21h.
Time to resolve82d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%