← Explore · Market 2646918

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?

3.5% implied · bid 3.3¢ · ask 3.8¢

The market prices this at 3.1%, down 1.1pt over 24h, on a 0.5¢ spread.

Implied probability3.1%

Bid / ask / mid3.3¢ / 3.8¢ / 3.5¢

Spread0.5¢ (14.1%)

Change 24h-1.10pt

Change 7d-1.95pt

Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$116

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$156 / $186

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score47.7 / 100

RSI 16 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.3σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-2.34

RSI (14, hourly)16.1

Realized vol 7d0.27pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 36d 22h.

Time to resolve36d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%