← Explore · Market 2646919
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
26.5% implied · bid 26.0¢ · ask 27.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 28.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability28.0%
Bid / ask / mid26.0¢ / 27.0¢ / 26.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (3.8%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d-2.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$7,111
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$661 / $1,859
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 25 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.42
RSI (14, hourly)25.0
Realized vol 7d1.64pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 82d 21h.
Time to resolve82d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%