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← Explore · Market 2646928

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?

18.8% implied · bid 17.7¢ · ask 19.8¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 19.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.1¢ spread.

Implied probability19.0%
Bid / ask / mid17.7¢ / 19.8¢ / 18.8¢
Spread2.1¢ (11.2%)
Change 24h+0.45pt
Change 7d+11.10pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,522
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,738 / $458
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.6 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 62 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.48
RSI (14, hourly)62.1
Realized vol 7d3.20pt
Change 1h+0.10pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 82d 21h.

Time to resolve82d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth