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← Explore · Market 2659165

Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?

61.5% implied · bid 60.0¢ · ask 63.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 53.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.

Implied probability53.0%
Bid / ask / mid60.0¢ / 63.0¢ / 61.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (4.9%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d-5.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 6% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$5,676
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$237 / $363
Imbalance6% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.3 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 61 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.04
RSI (14, hourly)61.2
Realized vol 7d3.77pt
Change 1h+10.50pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 174d 21h.

Time to resolve174d 21h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth