← Explore · Market 2661522
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?
35.5% implied · bid 33.0¢ · ask 38.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 32.0%, down 10.5pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.
Implied probability32.0%
Bid / ask / mid33.0¢ / 38.0¢ / 35.5¢
Spread5.0¢ (14.1%)
Change 24h-10.50pt
Change 7d-9.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$268
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5 / $27
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score25.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 35 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 4.0σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-4.00
RSI (14, hourly)35.3
Realized vol 7d1.23pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 63d 21h.
Time to resolve63d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%