← Explore · Market 2663611
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
55.5% implied · bid 55.0¢ · ask 56.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 54.0%, up 8.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability54.0%
Bid / ask / mid55.0¢ / 56.0¢ / 55.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.8%)
Change 24h+8.00pt
Change 7d-6.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 53/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 26% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$24,479
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$13,807 / $2,791
Imbalance26% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score53.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 44 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.39
RSI (14, hourly)44.4
Realized vol 7d1.02pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 41d 21h.
Time to resolve41d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%