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← Explore · Market 2668020

Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?

76.0% implied · bid 75.0¢ · ask 77.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 77.0%, down 3.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability77.0%
Bid / ask / mid75.0¢ / 77.0¢ / 76.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.6%)
Change 24h-3.00pt
Change 7d-1.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 47% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,567
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,346 / $345
Imbalance47% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.8 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 57 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.78
RSI (14, hourly)56.7
Realized vol 7d3.85pt
Change 1h+0.50pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 174d 21h.

Time to resolve174d 21h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth