← Explore · Market 2668037
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?
94.9% implied · bid 93.2¢ · ask 96.6¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 96.6%, down 3.8pt over 24h, on a 3.4¢ spread.
Implied probability96.6%
Bid / ask / mid93.2¢ / 96.6¢ / 94.9¢
Spread3.4¢ (3.6%)
Change 24h-3.80pt
Change 7d+7.40pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 39/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 60% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$2,136
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,190 / $10,519
Imbalance60% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score38.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 32 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.15
RSI (14, hourly)31.8
Realized vol 7d0.79pt
Change 1h+0.55pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 174d 21h.
Time to resolve174d 21h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%