← Explore · Market 2676277
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?
22.5% implied · bid 22.0¢ · ask 23.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 23.0%, down 3.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability23.0%
Bid / ask / mid22.0¢ / 23.0¢ / 22.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (4.4%)
Change 24h-3.00pt
Change 7d-6.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,291
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,248 / $577
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.82
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.61pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 82d 21h.
Time to resolve82d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%