← Explore · Market 2676277
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?
7.5% implied · bid 7.0¢ · ask 8.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 8.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability8.0%
Bid / ask / mid7.0¢ / 8.0¢ / 7.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (13.3%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 19% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$180
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$680 / $306
Imbalance19% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.63
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.24pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 37d 2h.
Time to resolve37d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%