← Explore · Market 2676506
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?
4.5% implied · bid 4.0¢ · ask 5.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.0%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability6.0%
Bid / ask / mid4.0¢ / 5.0¢ / 4.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (22.2%)
Change 24h-2.00pt
Change 7d-7.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,909
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$686 / $407
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.08
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.53pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 37d 2h.
Time to resolve37d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%