← Explore · Market 2677089
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by September 30, 2026?
3.5% implied · bid 2.0¢ · ask 5.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.0%, down 1.6pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability2.0%
Bid / ask / mid2.0¢ / 5.0¢ / 3.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (85.7%)
Change 24h-1.65pt
Change 7d-1.65pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$667
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$135 / $59
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 4 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 5.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-5.47
RSI (14, hourly)4.3
Realized vol 7d0.14pt
Change 1h-0.15pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 37d 2h.
Time to resolve37d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%