← Explore · Market 2677096
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by December 31, 2026?
5.5% implied · bid 5.0¢ · ask 6.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.0%, down 2.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability6.0%
Bid / ask / mid5.0¢ / 6.0¢ / 5.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (18.2%)
Change 24h-2.50pt
Change 7d-9.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$22,185
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$51 / $68
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.57
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.37pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 129d 3h.
Time to resolve129d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%