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← Explore · Market 2685911

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

13.5% implied · bid 13.0¢ · ask 14.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 13.0%, down 5.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability13.0%
Bid / ask / mid13.0¢ / 14.0¢ / 13.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (7.4%)
Change 24h-5.00pt
Change 7d-2.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$44,491
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,579 / $930
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score46.8 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 47 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.37
RSI (14, hourly)46.9
Realized vol 7d4.17pt
Change 1h+0.50pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 7d 21h.

Time to resolve7d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth