← Explore · Market 2685911
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?
13.5% implied · bid 13.0¢ · ask 14.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 13.0%, down 5.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability13.0%
Bid / ask / mid13.0¢ / 14.0¢ / 13.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (7.4%)
Change 24h-5.00pt
Change 7d-2.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$44,491
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,579 / $930
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score46.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 47 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.37
RSI (14, hourly)46.9
Realized vol 7d4.17pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 7d 21h.
Time to resolve7d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%