← Explore · Market 2686766
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
43.5% implied · bid 43.0¢ · ask 44.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 43.0%, up 1.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability43.0%
Bid / ask / mid43.0¢ / 44.0¢ / 43.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.3%)
Change 24h+1.50pt
Change 7d+1.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 53/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 12% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$4,596
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$8,202 / $7,224
Imbalance12% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score52.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 80 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.31
RSI (14, hourly)80.0
Realized vol 7d1.11pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 52d 21h.
Time to resolve52d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%