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Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

10.5% implied · bid 10.5¢ · ask 10.6¢

The market prices this at 10.5%, down 8.2pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability10.5%

Bid / ask / mid10.5¢ / 10.6¢ / 10.5¢

Spread0.1¢ (0.9%)

Change 24h-8.15pt

Change 7d+1.05pt

Moderately liquid (score 51/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$152,097

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,258 / $857

Imbalance2% bid

Large trades (>$1k)6

Liquidity score50.6 / 100

RSI 36 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.62

RSI (14, hourly)36.3

Realized vol 7d1.26pt

Change 1h-0.85pt

Resolves in 5d 20h.

Time to resolve5d 20h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%