← Explore · Market 2696746
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
18.5% implied · bid 18.0¢ · ask 19.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 18.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability18.0%
Bid / ask / mid18.0¢ / 19.0¢ / 18.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (5.4%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d-13.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 67/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 14% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$11,029
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$27,162 / $17,381
Imbalance14% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score67.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.78
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.43pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 82d 21h.
Time to resolve82d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%