← Explore · Market 2696747
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
37.5% implied · bid 37.0¢ · ask 38.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 37.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability37.0%
Bid / ask / mid37.0¢ / 38.0¢ / 37.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.7%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d-10.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 71/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 25% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$4,496
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$29,109 / $23,213
Imbalance25% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score71.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.58
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.44pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 82d 21h.
Time to resolve82d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%