a Refacto tool
AdvertisementYour banner here · 728 × 90 · ads@refacto.app

← Explore · Market 2696747

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

37.5% implied · bid 37.0¢ · ask 38.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 37.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability37.0%
Bid / ask / mid37.0¢ / 38.0¢ / 37.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.7%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d-10.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 71/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 25% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$4,496
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$29,109 / $23,213
Imbalance25% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score71.2 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.58
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.44pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 82d 21h.

Time to resolve82d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth