← Explore · Market 2698549

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

12.5% implied · bid 12.0¢ · ask 13.0¢

The market prices this at 12.0%, down 1.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability12.0%

Bid / ask / mid12.0¢ / 13.0¢ / 12.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (8.0%)

Change 24h-1.50pt

Change 7d-43.50pt

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,909

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$599 / $427

Imbalance2% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score45.5 / 100

RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.36

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d1.55pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 21d 21h.

Time to resolve21d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%