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← Explore · Market 2698591

Trump out as President by July 31?

0.7% implied · bid 0.6¢ · ask 0.7¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 0.7%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability0.7%
Bid / ask / mid0.6¢ / 0.7¢ / 0.7¢
Spread0.1¢ (15.4%)
Change 24h+0.10pt
Change 7d-0.35pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$32,375
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$446 / $1,181
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score50.3 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 75 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.11
RSI (14, hourly)75.0
Realized vol 7d0.04pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 21d 21h.

Time to resolve21d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth