← Explore · Market 2730675
Iran leadership change by September 30?
10.5% implied · bid 10.0¢ · ask 11.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 10.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability10.0%
Bid / ask / mid10.0¢ / 11.0¢ / 10.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (9.5%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d-0.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$177
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,260 / $151
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 75 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.88
RSI (14, hourly)75.0
Realized vol 7d0.28pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 81d 21h.
Time to resolve81d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%