← Explore · Market 2730676

Iran leadership change by July 31?

4.0% implied · bid 3.5¢ · ask 4.4¢

The market prices this at 4.2%, up 0.8pt over 24h, on a 0.9¢ spread.

Implied probability4.2%

Bid / ask / mid3.5¢ / 4.4¢ / 4.0¢

Spread0.9¢ (22.8%)

Change 24h+0.75pt

Change 7d+1.25pt

Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$35,812

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,980 / $2,427

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score47.7 / 100

RSI 53 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.1σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.08

RSI (14, hourly)52.7

Realized vol 7d0.33pt

Change 1h-0.40pt

Resolves in 20d 21h.

Time to resolve20d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%