← Explore · Market 2730712
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
21.5% implied · bid 21.0¢ · ask 22.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 20.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability20.0%
Bid / ask / mid21.0¢ / 22.0¢ / 21.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (4.7%)
Change 24h+2.00pt
Change 7d+7.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$13,946
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,080 / $1,867
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 58 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.36
RSI (14, hourly)58.3
Realized vol 7d0.56pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 4d 21h.
Time to resolve4d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%