a Refacto tool
AdvertisementYour banner here · 728 × 90 · ads@refacto.app

← Explore · Market 2732525

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

48.5% implied · bid 48.0¢ · ask 49.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 49.0%, down 5.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability49.0%
Bid / ask / mid48.0¢ / 49.0¢ / 48.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.1%)
Change 24h-5.50pt
Change 7d+13.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$15,978
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,257 / $303
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score47.3 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.07
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d2.26pt
Change 1h-0.50pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 21d 21h.

Time to resolve21d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth