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← Explore · Market 2737233

Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?

26.5% implied · bid 26.0¢ · ask 27.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 26.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability26.0%
Bid / ask / mid26.0¢ / 27.0¢ / 26.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (3.8%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d+4.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 54/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 12% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,203
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$6,768 / $12,171
Imbalance12% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score54.5 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.66
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.25pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 354d 21h.

Time to resolve354d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth