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Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

3.5% implied · bid 3.3¢ · ask 3.6¢

The market prices this at 3.4%, up 0.4pt over 24h, on a 0.3¢ spread.

Implied probability3.4%

Bid / ask / mid3.3¢ / 3.6¢ / 3.5¢

Spread0.3¢ (8.7%)

Change 24h+0.35pt

Change 7d+0.30pt

Moderately liquid (score 57/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$68,027

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$12,972 / $3,304

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score56.6 / 100

RSI 78 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.80

RSI (14, hourly)77.8

Realized vol 7d0.15pt

Change 1h-0.20pt

Resolves in 81d 21h.

Time to resolve81d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%