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Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

1.6% implied · bid 1.5¢ · ask 1.6¢

The market prices this at 1.6%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability1.6%

Bid / ask / mid1.5¢ / 1.6¢ / 1.6¢

Spread0.1¢ (6.5%)

Change 24h+0.10pt

Change 7d-0.10pt

Moderately liquid (score 53/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$35,042

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,068 / $3,616

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score52.8 / 100

RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.15

RSI (14, hourly)100.0

Realized vol 7d0.04pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 35d 22h.

Time to resolve35d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%