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← Explore · Market 2738407

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?

27.5% implied · bid 27.0¢ · ask 28.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 35.0%, up 11.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability35.0%
Bid / ask / mid27.0¢ / 28.0¢ / 27.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (3.6%)
Change 24h+11.00pt
Change 7d+18.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$142,661
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$369 / $729
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.5 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 36 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.48
RSI (14, hourly)35.5
Realized vol 7d3.36pt
Change 1h-13.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 0d 14h.

Time to resolve0d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth