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← Explore · Market 2738409

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?

60.9% implied · bid 60.8¢ · ask 60.9¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 55.0%, up 54.3pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability55.0%
Bid / ask / mid60.8¢ / 60.9¢ / 60.9¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.2%)
Change 24h+54.25pt
Change 7d+41.60pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$125,042
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$146 / $1,622
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.4 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 71 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 4.2σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean4.19
RSI (14, hourly)70.8
Realized vol 7d4.66pt
Change 1h+12.75pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 0d 14h.

Time to resolve0d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth