← Explore · Market 2738413
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?
13.6% implied · bid 13.1¢ · ask 14.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 11.8%, up 11.8pt over 24h, on a 0.9¢ spread.
Implied probability11.8%
Bid / ask / mid13.1¢ / 14.0¢ / 13.6¢
Spread0.9¢ (6.6%)
Change 24h+11.80pt
Change 7d-7.35pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$129,839
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$242 / $526
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score45.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 62 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.80
RSI (14, hourly)62.2
Realized vol 7d1.26pt
Change 1h+3.30pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 14h.
Time to resolve0d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%