← Explore · Market 2744060
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
18.5% implied · bid 18.0¢ · ask 19.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 17.0%, down 5.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability17.0%
Bid / ask / mid18.0¢ / 19.0¢ / 18.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (5.4%)
Change 24h-5.00pt
Change 7d-2.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 52/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$57,488
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5,093 / $9,103
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)5
Liquidity score52.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 67 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.05
RSI (14, hourly)66.7
Realized vol 7d1.66pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 174d 21h.
Time to resolve174d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%