← Explore · Market 2744159
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before July 31, 2026?
99.5% implied · bid 99.0¢ · ask 99.9¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 99.9%, up 0.7pt over 24h, on a 0.9¢ spread.
Implied probability99.9%
Bid / ask / mid99.0¢ / 99.9¢ / 99.5¢
Spread0.9¢ (0.9%)
Change 24h+0.65pt
Change 7d+22.95pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 77% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$896
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$706 / $2,141
Imbalance77% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 78 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.94
RSI (14, hourly)78.3
Realized vol 7d1.51pt
Change 1h+0.15pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 20d 21h.
Time to resolve20d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%