← Explore · Market 2744616
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?
3.6% implied · bid 3.5¢ · ask 3.8¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.8%, down 3.1pt over 24h, on a 0.3¢ spread.
Implied probability3.8%
Bid / ask / mid3.5¢ / 3.8¢ / 3.6¢
Spread0.3¢ (8.2%)
Change 24h-3.05pt
Change 7d-3.30pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 53/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$118,767
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,537 / $5,290
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)9
Liquidity score52.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 9 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.32
RSI (14, hourly)9.2
Realized vol 7d1.37pt
Change 1h+0.15pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 174d 21h.
Time to resolve174d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%