← Explore · Market 2744695
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?
61.5% implied · bid 59.0¢ · ask 64.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 55.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.
Implied probability55.0%
Bid / ask / mid59.0¢ / 64.0¢ / 61.5¢
Spread5.0¢ (8.1%)
Change 24h+2.00pt
Change 7d+8.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$9
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$18 / $418
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score25.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 53 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.04
RSI (14, hourly)52.6
Realized vol 7d1.27pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 355d 21h.
Time to resolve355d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%