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← Explore · Market 2745548

Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by September 30, 2026?

10.5% implied · bid 10.0¢ · ask 11.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 11.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability11.0%
Bid / ask / mid10.0¢ / 11.0¢ / 10.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (9.5%)
Change 24h+2.00pt
Change 7d-5.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 27% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$18,681
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$331 / $334
Imbalance27% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.3 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 40 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.19
RSI (14, hourly)40.0
Realized vol 7d0.50pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 37d 2h.

Time to resolve37d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth