a Refacto tool
AdvertisementYour banner here · 728 × 90 · ads@refacto.app

← Explore · Market 2745549

Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by December 31, 2026?

53.5% implied · bid 53.0¢ · ask 54.0¢

☆ Log in to track

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 47.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability47.0%
Bid / ask / mid53.0¢ / 54.0¢ / 53.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.9%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d+7.50pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 15% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$45
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$125 / $1,581
Imbalance15% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.9 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.96
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d1.25pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 129d 3h.

Time to resolve129d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth