← Explore · Market 2745587
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in July?
12.5% implied · bid 12.0¢ · ask 13.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 13.0%, down 11.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability13.0%
Bid / ask / mid12.0¢ / 13.0¢ / 12.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (8.0%)
Change 24h-11.00pt
Change 7d+4.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,858
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$157 / $111
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.81
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d2.79pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 21d 21h.
Time to resolve21d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%