← Explore · Market 2745588
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in July?
53.5% implied · bid 53.0¢ · ask 54.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 54.0%, up 4.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability54.0%
Bid / ask / mid53.0¢ / 54.0¢ / 53.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.9%)
Change 24h+4.50pt
Change 7d+15.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$218
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$314 / $489
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.12
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d1.90pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 21d 21h.
Time to resolve21d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%