← Explore · Market 2745589
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July?
21.1% implied · bid 20.6¢ · ask 21.5¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 21.5%, up 0.9pt over 24h, on a 0.9¢ spread.
Implied probability21.5%
Bid / ask / mid20.6¢ / 21.5¢ / 21.1¢
Spread0.9¢ (4.3%)
Change 24h+0.90pt
Change 7d-8.45pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$332
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$246 / $63
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 67 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.55
RSI (14, hourly)66.7
Realized vol 7d1.31pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 21d 21h.
Time to resolve21d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%