← Explore · Market 2745590
Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?
8.2% implied · bid 6.7¢ · ask 9.6¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.7%, up 4.4pt over 24h, on a 2.9¢ spread.
Implied probability6.7%
Bid / ask / mid6.7¢ / 9.6¢ / 8.2¢
Spread2.9¢ (35.6%)
Change 24h+4.40pt
Change 7d-7.35pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$128
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$50 / $42
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 70 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.19
RSI (14, hourly)70.4
Realized vol 7d0.68pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 21d 21h.
Time to resolve21d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%