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← Explore · Market 2745599

Will there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?

50.0% implied · bid 49.0¢ · ask 51.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 49.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability49.0%
Bid / ask / mid49.0¢ / 51.0¢ / 50.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (4.0%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d+10.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$57
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,262 / $989
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score41.1 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.53
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.69pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 21d 21h.

Time to resolve21d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth