← Explore · Market 2745599
Will there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?
50.0% implied · bid 49.0¢ · ask 51.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 49.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability49.0%
Bid / ask / mid49.0¢ / 51.0¢ / 50.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (4.0%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d+10.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$57
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,262 / $989
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score41.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.53
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.69pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 21d 21h.
Time to resolve21d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%