← Explore · Market 2745600
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?
21.0% implied · bid 20.0¢ · ask 22.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 22.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability22.0%
Bid / ask / mid20.0¢ / 22.0¢ / 21.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (9.5%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$9
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$459 / $316
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.57
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.28pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 21d 21h.
Time to resolve21d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%