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← Explore · Market 2745600

Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?

21.0% implied · bid 20.0¢ · ask 22.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 22.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability22.0%
Bid / ask / mid20.0¢ / 22.0¢ / 21.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (9.5%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d-1.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$9
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$459 / $316
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.4 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.57
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.28pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 21d 21h.

Time to resolve21d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth