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← Explore · Market 2745601

Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?

18.0% implied · bid 17.0¢ · ask 19.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 19.0%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability19.0%
Bid / ask / mid17.0¢ / 19.0¢ / 18.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (11.1%)
Change 24h-2.00pt
Change 7d+3.50pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$8
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$249 / $303
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.3 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.00
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.72pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 21d 21h.

Time to resolve21d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth