← Explore · Market 2747468
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?
33.5% implied · bid 30.0¢ · ask 37.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 30.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 7.0¢ spread.
Implied probability30.0%
Bid / ask / mid30.0¢ / 37.0¢ / 33.5¢
Spread7.0¢ (20.9%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d+13.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 15/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$4,930
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$10 / $18
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score15.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 61 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.09
RSI (14, hourly)61.1
Realized vol 7d1.67pt
Change 1h+3.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 173d 21h.
Time to resolve173d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%