← Explore · Market 2753436
US bank failure by July 31?
18.0% implied · bid 17.0¢ · ask 19.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 18.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability18.0%
Bid / ask / mid17.0¢ / 19.0¢ / 18.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (11.1%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d+5.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,498
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$160 / $46
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 73 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.66
RSI (14, hourly)72.7
Realized vol 7d1.29pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 21d 21h.
Time to resolve21d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%